Show HN: Freedom Graph – FI calculator that models sequence-of-returns risk https://ift.tt/Irp7D2M

Show HN: Freedom Graph – FI calculator that models sequence-of-returns risk Hi HN, I built Freedom Graph because I wanted an FI calculator that modeled market variability and flexible spending more realistically. Lots of calculators assume constant returns, fixed withdrawal rules, and the "real = nominal – inflation" approximation. That’s fine for ballpark numbers, but not great when you care about sequence risk or decisions like, "should I spend another year working?" These are the real-world factors I wanted to model explicitly: * Sequence of Returns Risk: Optional market randomness (mix of positive/negative years, long-run ~10% CAGR) to show how early retirement plans can fail even when the long-term average looks fine * Correct real-return math: Uses the Fisher equation instead of the linear approximation, which compounds differently over long time horizons * Adaptive strategies: Model “one more year” scenarios and spending flexibility to see how behavior affects success probabilities Other QoL things: * Built with React + Vite; no input data is sent anywhere * Local storage persists inputs between browser sessions * FI income automatically adjusts when you hit your target * Dark/light mode I’d really appreciate feedback on both the UX and assumption/behavior levers. If you think something’s wrong or misleading, please tell me. Thanks! https://ift.tt/eoK4FnC December 9, 2025 at 11:03PM